Sharing the airwaves: can Kenya’s 4G partnership work?
http://www.analysysmason.com/About-Us/News/Insight/Kenya_4G_partnership_Dec2..., Sharing the airwaves: can Kenya’s 4G partnership work? 20 December 2010 <http://www.analysysmason.com/People/Robert-Schumann/> “Making this 4G plan work will be a challenge for the selected network manager ... and for those charged with monitoring its performance.” The Kenyan government has recently put forward a plan to simultaneously promote cost-effective use of the 2.6GHz band and save operators from having to spend money in an auction. The plan is to offer the management of the band (up to 190MHz of spectrum, which is suitable for high-speed mobile data services) to an independent company in order to create an open access wholesale network. Operators would purchase capacity from the company, and bundle it into packages and products that they would sell in a competitive market to retail customers. The end result would be a single, highly utilised network with low unit costs. The plan sounds good, but the country’s government could be ‘jumping from the frying pan into the fire’. The frying pan may not have been that bad, after all Why does the Kenyan government feel wary of assigning spectrum to individual operators? The reasons suggested by Bitange Ndemo, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Information and Communications, include: * high prices paid in an auction lead to high prices charged to consumers * operators failing to honour roll-out commitments * an auction would have 19 potential buyers and room for only three winners, so would discriminate against those that could not afford it. Do high auction prices lead to high prices for consumers? Actually, it is the other way around: if operators can charge high prices, they will be willing to place high bids at auction. Service providers can charge high prices if there is limited supply of their product or of reasonable substitutes – and low auction prices do not guarantee low service prices. Furthermore, it is possible to design award processes to achieve ends other than extracting maximum revenue. The 2.6GHz spectrum is unlikely to attract 19 serious bidders, given that it is relatively poor for providing coverage outside urban areas. A new entrant operator that aims to launch services based on this spectrum may be aiming to target a niche, such as medium-sized and large enterprises in urban areas. Giving them a chance to do this may be useful, but not as useful in expanding access to broadband as, for example, raising money in an auction to fund rural access. Think carefully before jumping into the fire Kenyan policymakers have correctly identified that greater supply (and more competition) is the key to reducing mobile broadband prices. They have also commendably declined to squeeze auction revenue out of operators. However, their solution turns away from infrastructure-based competition, which has revolutionised the telecoms industry during the past few decades. Will their alternative approach, which focuses on retail competition, work? The bad news is that pure wholesale business models for mobile data have not done well in the past. Reasons include difficulty in developing ‘one-size-fits-all’ wholesale tariffs, absence of profitable voice services, and dependence on the strategy and performance of other operators. The better news is that network-sharing deals can work. Operators around the world are signing deals to share radio access networks.^1 In all likelihood the critical feature is that the retail operators have a strong interest in the entity that runs the network: financial interest to ensure that it makes a success of the services, and management interest to allow flexibility and tailored ‘tariff plans’. Tantalisingly, the arrival of Indian-style telecoms in Africa (led by Airtel, among others) may naturally lead to greater sharing (and price cuts), without the need for government intervention. It is clear that making this 4G plan work in Kenya will be a challenge for the selected network manager (a “group from the USA” has been mentioned as a candidate). It will be even more of a challenge for those charged with negotiating an agreement and monitoring its performance. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ /This Insight article is based on an interview conducted by Russell Southwood for Balancing Act Africa. Please //click here/ <http://www.balancingact-africa.com/news/en/issue-no-532>/to view the full article./ /Analysys Mason has experience in developing concrete, coherent //national broadband plans/ <http://www.analysysmason.com/About-Us/Offices/New-Delhi/CII_broadband_report/>/ and in //spectrum policy and auctions/ <http://www.analysysmason.com/Consulting/Services/Strategy-consulting/Spectrum-management/>/./ ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ^1 For further details, see Analysys Mason's Insight article /Wireless infrastructure sharing saves operators 30% in capex and 15% in opex/ <http://www.analysysmason.com/About-Us/News/Insight/Wireless-infrastructure-sharing-saves-operators-capex-and-opex/>.
Alice, Interesting Policy decision - I didnt know the govt/regulator had opted to place the 4G airwaves (the 2.6Ghz Band?) under a "managed-infrastructure" arrangement. As Russell rightly puts it in his analysis - its quite a risky proposition. I can expect the big players not being too comfy having to "hire" bandwidth/network resources from a 3rd party in order to deploy their 4g services, but at the same time the small players would be extremely happy to run 4g services on a "hired" basis. (By the way, I thought Safcom already had 4g license a while back..) And yes, more problems for the Regulator - how do you "manage" the "managing agent" who is licensed to hire out the bandwidth? How can you ensure that the managing agent is not provisioning the infrastructure in a way to hurt or favour one of the Operators i.e is not biased? An even before that, what criteria is used to identify the managing agent (auction, beauty contest, political contest?) mmhh..I guess more qtns than answers. walu. --- On Mon, 12/20/10, Alice Munyua <alice@apc.org> wrote: From: Alice Munyua <alice@apc.org> Subject: [kictanet] Sharing the airwaves: can Kenya’s 4G partnership work? To: jwalu@yahoo.com Cc: "KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions" <kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke> Date: Monday, December 20, 2010, 10:27 PM http://www.analysysmason.com/About-Us/News/Insight/Kenya_4G_partnership_Dec2..., Sharing the airwaves: can Kenya’s 4G partnership work? 20 December 2010 “Making this 4G plan work will be a challenge for the selected network manager ... and for those charged with monitoring its performance.” The Kenyan government has recently put forward a plan to simultaneously promote cost-effective use of the 2.6GHz band and save operators from having to spend money in an auction. The plan is to offer the management of the band (up to 190MHz of spectrum, which is suitable for high-speed mobile data services) to an independent company in order to create an open access wholesale network. Operators would purchase capacity from the company, and bundle it into packages and products that they would sell in a competitive market to retail customers. The end result would be a single, highly utilised network with low unit costs. The plan sounds good, but the country’s government could be ‘jumping from the frying pan into the fire’. The frying pan may not have been that bad, after all Why does the Kenyan government feel wary of assigning spectrum to individual operators? The reasons suggested by Bitange Ndemo, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Information and Communications, include: high prices paid in an auction lead to high prices charged to consumers operators failing to honour roll-out commitments an auction would have 19 potential buyers and room for only three winners, so would discriminate against those that could not afford it. Do high auction prices lead to high prices for consumers? Actually, it is the other way around: if operators can charge high prices, they will be willing to place high bids at auction. Service providers can charge high prices if there is limited supply of their product or of reasonable substitutes – and low auction prices do not guarantee low service prices. Furthermore, it is possible to design award processes to achieve ends other than extracting maximum revenue. The 2.6GHz spectrum is unlikely to attract 19 serious bidders, given that it is relatively poor for providing coverage outside urban areas. A new entrant operator that aims to launch services based on this spectrum may be aiming to target a niche, such as medium-sized and large enterprises in urban areas. Giving them a chance to do this may be useful, but not as useful in expanding access to broadband as, for example, raising money in an auction to fund rural access. Think carefully before jumping into the fire Kenyan policymakers have correctly identified that greater supply (and more competition) is the key to reducing mobile broadband prices. They have also commendably declined to squeeze auction revenue out of operators. However, their solution turns away from infrastructure-based competition, which has revolutionised the telecoms industry during the past few decades. Will their alternative approach, which focuses on retail competition, work? The bad news is that pure wholesale business models for mobile data have not done well in the past. Reasons include difficulty in developing ‘one-size-fits-all’ wholesale tariffs, absence of profitable voice services, and dependence on the strategy and performance of other operators. The better news is that network-sharing deals can work. Operators around the world are signing deals to share radio access networks.1 In all likelihood the critical feature is that the retail operators have a strong interest in the entity that runs the network: financial interest to ensure that it makes a success of the services, and management interest to allow flexibility and tailored ‘tariff plans’. Tantalisingly, the arrival of Indian-style telecoms in Africa (led by Airtel, among others) may naturally lead to greater sharing (and price cuts), without the need for government intervention. It is clear that making this 4G plan work in Kenya will be a challenge for the selected network manager (a “group from the USA” has been mentioned as a candidate). It will be even more of a challenge for those charged with negotiating an agreement and monitoring its performance. This Insight article is based on an interview conducted by Russell Southwood for Balancing Act Africa. Please click here to view the full article. Analysys Mason has experience in developing concrete, coherent national broadband plans and in spectrum policy and auctions. 1 For further details, see Analysys Mason's Insight article Wireless infrastructure sharing saves operators 30% in capex and 15% in opex. -----Inline Attachment Follows----- _______________________________________________ kictanet mailing list kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke http://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/listinfo/kictanet This message was sent to: jwalu@yahoo.com Unsubscribe or change your options at http://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/options/kictanet/jwalu%40yahoo.com
Hi Walu, If I may throw in my two bits. If the 3rd party is organised as a consortium (and not a new licencee per se), like Eassy/TEAMs, with everyone having a stake and therefore able to protect their interests, THEN this could work. Much like having KIXP - well that may not be the best example but I think it could work within the right framework. I think it also furthers the spirit of competition by allowing even the smaller operators a chance to innovate and add value where big operators fall short of being intimate and responsive to customer needs. We have constantly heard about customer service issues mainly with the big operators (i.e. too big to offer personalised attention). On 21 December 2010 09:39, Walubengo J <jwalu@yahoo.com> wrote:
Alice,
Interesting Policy decision - I didnt know the govt/regulator had opted to place the 4G airwaves (the 2.6Ghz Band?) under a "managed-infrastructure" arrangement. As Russell rightly puts it in his analysis - its quite a risky proposition. I can expect the big players not being too comfy having to "hire" bandwidth/network resources from a 3rd party in order to deploy their 4g services, but at the same time the small players would be extremely happy to run 4g services on a "hired" basis. (By the way, I thought Safcom already had 4g license a while back..)
And yes, more problems for the Regulator - how do you "manage" the "managing agent" who is licensed to hire out the bandwidth? How can you ensure that the managing agent is not provisioning the infrastructure in a way to hurt or favour one of the Operators i.e is not biased? An even before that, what criteria is used to identify the managing agent (auction, beauty contest, political contest?)
mmhh..I guess more qtns than answers.
walu. --- On *Mon, 12/20/10, Alice Munyua <alice@apc.org>* wrote:
From: Alice Munyua <alice@apc.org> Subject: [kictanet] Sharing the airwaves: can Kenya’s 4G partnership work? To: jwalu@yahoo.com Cc: "KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions" <kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke> Date: Monday, December 20, 2010, 10:27 PM
http://www.analysysmason.com/About-Us/News/Insight/Kenya_4G_partnership_Dec2... , Sharing the airwaves: can Kenya’s 4G partnership work?
20 December 2010
<http://www.analysysmason.com/People/Robert-Schumann/>
“Making this 4G plan work will be a challenge for the selected network manager ... and for those charged with monitoring its performance.”
The Kenyan government has recently put forward a plan to simultaneously promote cost-effective use of the 2.6GHz band and save operators from having to spend money in an auction. The plan is to offer the management of the band (up to 190MHz of spectrum, which is suitable for high-speed mobile data services) to an independent company in order to create an open access wholesale network. Operators would purchase capacity from the company, and bundle it into packages and products that they would sell in a competitive market to retail customers. The end result would be a single, highly utilised network with low unit costs.
The plan sounds good, but the country’s government could be ‘jumping from the frying pan into the fire’. The frying pan may not have been that bad, after all
Why does the Kenyan government feel wary of assigning spectrum to individual operators? The reasons suggested by Bitange Ndemo, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Information and Communications, include:
- high prices paid in an auction lead to high prices charged to consumers - operators failing to honour roll-out commitments - an auction would have 19 potential buyers and room for only three winners, so would discriminate against those that could not afford it.
Do high auction prices lead to high prices for consumers? Actually, it is the other way around: if operators can charge high prices, they will be willing to place high bids at auction. Service providers can charge high prices if there is limited supply of their product or of reasonable substitutes – and low auction prices do not guarantee low service prices. Furthermore, it is possible to design award processes to achieve ends other than extracting maximum revenue.
The 2.6GHz spectrum is unlikely to attract 19 serious bidders, given that it is relatively poor for providing coverage outside urban areas. A new entrant operator that aims to launch services based on this spectrum may be aiming to target a niche, such as medium-sized and large enterprises in urban areas. Giving them a chance to do this may be useful, but not as useful in expanding access to broadband as, for example, raising money in an auction to fund rural access. Think carefully before jumping into the fire
Kenyan policymakers have correctly identified that greater supply (and more competition) is the key to reducing mobile broadband prices. They have also commendably declined to squeeze auction revenue out of operators. However, their solution turns away from infrastructure-based competition, which has revolutionised the telecoms industry during the past few decades. Will their alternative approach, which focuses on retail competition, work?
The bad news is that pure wholesale business models for mobile data have not done well in the past. Reasons include difficulty in developing ‘one-size-fits-all’ wholesale tariffs, absence of profitable voice services, and dependence on the strategy and performance of other operators.
The better news is that network-sharing deals can work. Operators around the world are signing deals to share radio access networks.1 In all likelihood the critical feature is that the retail operators have a strong interest in the entity that runs the network: financial interest to ensure that it makes a success of the services, and management interest to allow flexibility and tailored ‘tariff plans’.
Tantalisingly, the arrival of Indian-style telecoms in Africa (led by Airtel, among others) may naturally lead to greater sharing (and price cuts), without the need for government intervention.
It is clear that making this 4G plan work in Kenya will be a challenge for the selected network manager (a “group from the USA” has been mentioned as a candidate). It will be even more of a challenge for those charged with negotiating an agreement and monitoring its performance. ------------------------------
*This Insight article is based on an interview conducted by Russell Southwood for Balancing Act Africa. Please **click here*<http://www.balancingact-africa.com/news/en/issue-no-532> * to view the full article.*
*Analysys Mason has experience in developing concrete, coherent **national broadband plans*<http://www.analysysmason.com/About-Us/Offices/New-Delhi/CII_broadband_report/> * and in **spectrum policy and auctions*<http://www.analysysmason.com/Consulting/Services/Strategy-consulting/Spectrum-management/> *.* ------------------------------
1 For further details, see Analysys Mason's Insight article *Wireless infrastructure sharing saves operators 30% in capex and 15% in opex*<http://www.analysysmason.com/About-Us/News/Insight/Wireless-infrastructure-sharing-saves-operators-capex-and-opex/> .
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Santa Clause has a right idea. Visit people once a year. Victor Borge Merry Christmas and a wonderful New Year. Ndemo. Sent from my BlackBerry® -----Original Message----- From: Alice Munyua <alice@apc.org> Sender: kictanet-bounces+bitange=jambo.co.ke@lists.kictanet.or.ke Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2010 21:27:53 To: <bitange@jambo.co.ke> Cc: KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions<kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke> Subject: [kictanet] Sharing the airwaves: can Kenya’s 4G partnership work? _______________________________________________ kictanet mailing list kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke http://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/listinfo/kictanet This message was sent to: bitange@jambo.co.ke Unsubscribe or change your options at http://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/options/kictanet/bitange%40jambo.co.ke
In the spirit of expressing love to the less fortunate, I'll be visiting a Children's Home in Kibera on 26th December in the afternoon. On 23/12/2010, bitange@jambo.co.ke <bitange@jambo.co.ke> wrote:
Santa Clause has a right idea. Visit people once a year. Victor Borge
Merry Christmas and a wonderful New Year.
Ndemo.
Sent from my BlackBerry®
-----Original Message----- From: Alice Munyua <alice@apc.org> Sender: kictanet-bounces+bitange=jambo.co.ke@lists.kictanet.or.ke Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2010 21:27:53 To: <bitange@jambo.co.ke> Cc: KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions<kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke> Subject: [kictanet] Sharing the airwaves: can Kenya’s 4G partnership work?
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Thanks Dr Ndemo 2010 was a defining moment in a number of ways that shook the ground and forced the actors to review their game plan . For some, it was a sea change which called for radical change or else the day of reckoning is near . it was not business as usual - growth in numbers was no longer the focus but revenue generation . from a supplier-centric market , 2010 heralded the consumer focus with back-end infrastructure no longer a differentiator but candidate for outsourcing. On the whole, Kenya ICT fraternity took global leadership with innovation of products and services and growth . Kenya recorded the fastest growth of broadband recording a whopping 173% , our MPESA and generally MMT became the standard bearer and our own entrepreneurs took global leadership -remember Mr James Waibochi with the Nokia award, Kenya hosting ICANN early in the year, Airtel honoured Kenya as regional base for its African operations, took leadership in migration to the digital broadcasting . At the national level, we mainstreamed ICT to become a key instrument in driving up economic growth------ . In short we are at the tipping point ---- courtesy of your foresight and vision . We still have work to do in 2011, we need to severely test whether vertical integration is tenable as it whittles the space for SMEs and check the stiff competition that is pushing out the rural access agenda ---- Listers were always on hand to offer incisive and positive suggestions to steady the trajectory if ICT development . Congratulations cheers and wishing you a merry xmas and great 2011 Muriuki Mureithi What can u do to promote world peace? Go home and love your family. -Mother Teresa -----Original Message----- From: kictanet-bounces+mureithi=summitstrategies.co.ke@lists.kictanet.or.ke [mailto:kictanet-bounces+mureithi=summitstrategies.co.ke@lists.kictanet.or.k e] On Behalf Of bitange@jambo.co.ke Sent: 23 December 2010 18:08 To: mureithi@summitstrategies.co.ke Cc: KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions Subject: Re: [kictanet] Christmas Santa Clause has a right idea. Visit people once a year. Victor Borge Merry Christmas and a wonderful New Year. Ndemo. Sent from my BlackBerryR -----Original Message----- From: Alice Munyua <alice@apc.org> Sender: kictanet-bounces+bitange=jambo.co.ke@lists.kictanet.or.ke Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2010 21:27:53 To: <bitange@jambo.co.ke> Cc: KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions<kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke> Subject: [kictanet] Sharing the airwaves: can Kenya's 4G partnership work? _______________________________________________ kictanet mailing list kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke http://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/listinfo/kictanet This message was sent to: bitange@jambo.co.ke Unsubscribe or change your options at http://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/options/kictanet/bitange%40jambo.co.ke _______________________________________________ kictanet mailing list kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke http://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/listinfo/kictanet This message was sent to: mureithi@summitstrategies.co.ke Unsubscribe or change your options at http://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/options/kictanet/mureithi%40summitstrate gies.co.ke
Listers, Merry Christmas and a happy 2011. Sambaza Upendo, mbuzi kuku na kadhalika :-) Best Regards On Fri, Dec 24, 2010 at 9:29 AM, muriuki mureithi < mureithi@summitstrategies.co.ke> wrote:
Thanks Dr Ndemo
2010 was a defining moment in a number of ways that shook the ground and forced the actors to review their game plan . For some, it was a sea change which called for radical change or else the day of reckoning is near . it was not business as usual - growth in numbers was no longer the focus but revenue generation . from a supplier-centric market , 2010 heralded the consumer focus with back-end infrastructure no longer a differentiator but candidate for outsourcing. On the whole, Kenya ICT fraternity took global leadership with innovation of products and services and growth . Kenya recorded the fastest growth of broadband recording a whopping 173% , our MPESA and generally MMT became the standard bearer and our own entrepreneurs took global leadership -remember Mr James Waibochi with the Nokia award, Kenya hosting ICANN early in the year, Airtel honoured Kenya as regional base for its African operations, took leadership in migration to the digital broadcasting . At the national level, we mainstreamed ICT to become a key instrument in driving up economic growth------ . In short we are at the tipping point ---- courtesy of your foresight and vision .
We still have work to do in 2011, we need to severely test whether vertical integration is tenable as it whittles the space for SMEs and check the stiff competition that is pushing out the rural access agenda ----
Listers were always on hand to offer incisive and positive suggestions to steady the trajectory if ICT development . Congratulations
cheers and wishing you a merry xmas and great 2011
Muriuki Mureithi
What can u do to promote world peace? Go home and love your family. -Mother Teresa
-----Original Message----- From: kictanet-bounces+mureithi=summitstrategies.co.ke@ lists.kictanet.or.ke [mailto:kictanet-bounces+mureithi <kictanet-bounces%2Bmureithi>= summitstrategies.co.ke@lists.kictanet.or.k e] On Behalf Of bitange@jambo.co.ke Sent: 23 December 2010 18:08 To: mureithi@summitstrategies.co.ke Cc: KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions Subject: Re: [kictanet] Christmas
Santa Clause has a right idea. Visit people once a year. Victor Borge
Merry Christmas and a wonderful New Year.
Ndemo.
Sent from my BlackBerryR
-----Original Message----- From: Alice Munyua <alice@apc.org> Sender: kictanet-bounces+bitange=jambo.co.ke@lists.kictanet.or.ke Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2010 21:27:53 To: <bitange@jambo.co.ke> Cc: KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions<kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke> Subject: [kictanet] Sharing the airwaves: can Kenya's 4G partnership work?
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IBM Plays Nostradamus, Predicts Five 2015 Technologies http://www.brightsideofnews.com/news/2010/12/20/ibm-imitates-nostradamus2c-m... For five years now, IBM has been making a yearly Five in Five set of predictions about technology’s future. Their vision of the year 2015 isn’t too hard to believe, considering earlier innovations we now take for granted. So what does IBM see in their crystal ball? How about batteries that run on air? That’s right. IBM is predicting new batteries that will take oxygen from the air and turn it into power. Smaller devices might be charged with kinetic or static electricity. You know, the rub-a-balloon-across-the-hair-on-your-head concept. IBM sees holograms in our future. IBM sees a variant of Star Trek’s ‘Beam me up Scotty’ as a viable way of communicating with friends and co-workers. Holographic images that you can interact with aren’t so far removed from the 3-D television you are hoping to find under your Christmas tree. Wouldn’t that be fun! On a more practical note – let’s look at a 21st century concern – energy consumption. A data center uses 50 percent of its energy just keeping its computers cool. IBM asks: Why not take the heat that is being removed and put it to use? The company has already been working on that idea. In 2008, in conjunction with the Fraunhofer Institute in Berlin, IBM announced a technique to cool 3-D chip stacks with water. Continuing in that direction, IBM and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH) are developing Aquasar, a first-of-a-kind, water-cooled supercomputer. Bruno Michel, manager advanced thermal packaging at IBM Research – Zurich said: Water as a coolant has the ability to capture heat about 4,000 times more efficiently than air, and its heat-transporting properties are also far superior. IBM claims that chip-level cooling with a water temperature of approximately 60 degrees C is sufficient to keep the chip at operating temperatures well below the maximally allowed 85 degrees C. Don Campbell, Chief Technology Officer for Business Analytics at IBM explains that it is a "micro approach to passing water across the chip, pulling heat out of the chip and instead of getting rid of it, capturing, extracting and repurposing it." The energy could power the office coffee maker, or in the Zurich case, heat their buildings. A further prediction on the list of 5-in-5, is that individuals could become part of a network providing information to help researchers. For example as they explain in the above video, laptops connected to a network could map the aftermath of an earthquake. You might opt to become more personally involved. As you move about, you could be collecting data for scientists via sensors in your phone or in your car. The sensors would pick up and transmit information about your environment: temperature, mosquito hatchings, water availability. GPS would be involved as an informational device, which leads to this year’s final prediction that resembles a George Jetson scenario. Your traffic patterns could be analyzed, then personalized, such as where there is an open parking space, or how to circumvent a road obstruction. Adaptive traffic systems could make your commute less of a headache. Like Nostradamus, IBM may, or may not, have hit the nail on the head. Make a note on your calendar to check back in five years so you can confirm the quality of their foresight. Top 25 Technology Predictions By Dave Evans, Chief Futurist, Cisco IBSG Innovations Practice http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ac79/docs/Top_25_Predictions_121409rev.pdf 1. By 2029, 11 petabytes of storage will be available for $100—equivalent to 600+ years of continuous, 24-hour-per-day, DVD-quality video. (Source: Cisco IBSG, 2009) 2. In the next 10 years, we will see a 20-time increase in home networking speeds. (Source: Cisco IBSG, 2009) 3. By 2013, wireless network traffic will reach 400 petabytes a month. Today, the entire global network transfers 9 exabytes per month. (Source: FCC Head Julius Genachowski) 4. By the end of 2010, there will be a billion transistors per human—each costing one ten-millionth of a cent. (Sources: Intel Corporation; Cisco IBSG, 2006-2009; IBM) 5. The Internet will evolve to perform instantaneous communication, regardless of distance. (Source: Cisco IBSG, 2009) 6. The first commercial quantum computer will be available by mid-2020. (Source: Cisco IBSG, 2009) 7. By 2020, a $1,000 personal computer will have the raw processing power of a human brain. (Sources: Hans Moravec, Robotics Institute, Carnegie Mellon University, 1998; Cisco IBSG, 2006-2009) 8. By 2030, it will take a village of human brains to match a $1,000 computer. (Sources: Hans Moravec, Robotics Institute, Carnegie Mellon University, 1998; Cisco IBSG,2006-2009) 9. By 2050 (assuming a global population of 9 billion), $1,000 worth of computing power will equal the processing power of all human brains on earth. (Sources: Hans Moravec, Robotics Institute, Carnegie Mellon University, 1998; Cisco IBSG, 2006-2009) 10. Today, we know 5 percent of what we will know in 50 years. In other words, in 50 years, 95 percent of what we will know will have been discovered in the past 50 years. 11. The world’s data will increase sixfold in each of the next two years, while corporate data will grow fiftyfold. (Source: Technorati) 12. By 2015, Google will index approximately 775 billion pages of content. (Source:Cisco IBSG, 2009)
We have invited one of Avertar makers to speak on the marriage of IT, animation, film and music to create one of the fastest growing modern industry, Visual Effects. This will take place at the Serena on the 10th of January 2011. If for some reason you have inerest in this new area please confirm your attendance by calling Margaret on 315517 by the 7th of January. God willing, 2011 shall be our busiest year ever. Do not drink and drive. Regards. Ndemo. Sent from my BlackBerry® -----Original Message----- From: Alice Munyua <alice@apc.org> Sender: kictanet-bounces+bitange=jambo.co.ke@lists.kictanet.or.ke Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2010 21:27:53 To: <bitange@jambo.co.ke> Cc: KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions<kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke> Subject: [kictanet] Sharing the airwaves: can Kenya’s 4G partnership work? _______________________________________________ kictanet mailing list kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke http://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/listinfo/kictanet This message was sent to: bitange@jambo.co.ke Unsubscribe or change your options at http://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/options/kictanet/bitange%40jambo.co.ke
participants (8)
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Alice Munyua -
Barrack Otieno -
bitange＠jambo.co.ke -
Francis Hook -
Lucy Kimani -
muriuki mureithi -
Solomon Mburu Kamau -
Walubengo J