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From:
Hsladovich@worldbank.org [mailto:Hsladovich@worldbank.org] On Behalf Of research@worldbank.org
Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2008
8:09 PM
Subject: eAlert --> WPS 4516.
Determinants of a Digital Divide in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Spatial Econometric
Analysis of Cell Phone Coverage, by Piet Buys, Susmita Dasgupta, Tim Thomas,
and David Wheeler (February 2008)
Determinants of a Digital Divide in Sub-Saharan Africa: A
Spatial Econometric Analysis of Cell Phone Coverage
Policy
Research Working Paper 4516, Piet Buys, Susmita Dasgupta,
Tim Thomas, and David Wheeler (February 2008)
Download Working Paper (26 pages)
Most
discussions of the digital divide treat it as a "North-South" issue,
but the conventional dichotomy doesn't apply to cell phones in Sub-Saharan
Africa. Although almost all Sub-Saharan countries are poor by international
standards, they exhibit great disparities in coverage by cell telephone
systems.
Buys,
Dasgupta, Thomas and Wheeler investigate the determinants of these disparities
with a spatially-disaggregated model that employs locational information for
cell-phone towers across over 990,000 4.6-km grid squares in Sub-Saharan
Africa. Using probit techniques, a probability model with adjustments for
spatial autocorrelation has been estimated that relates the likelihood of
cell-tower location within a grid square to potential market size (proximate
population); installation and maintenance cost factors related to accessibility
(elevation, slope, distance from a main road, distance from the nearest large
city); and national competition policy.
Probit
estimates indicate strong, significant results for the supply-demand variables,
and very strong results for the competition policy index. Simulations based on
the econometric results suggest that a generalized improvement in competition
policy to a level that currently characterizes the best-performing states in
Sub-Saharan Africa could lead to huge improvements in cell-phone area coverage
for many states currently with poor policy performance, and an overall coverage
increase of nearly 100 percent.
Produced
by the Sustainable
Rural and Urban Development ResearchTeam in Development Research Group (http://econ.worldbank.org/programs/rural-urban)
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