Robert F Kennedy once said, “… the future is not a gift: it is an achievement.  Every generation helps make its own future.  This is the essential challenge of the present.”  This future, Eleanor Roosevelt said, “… belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.”  Further, an African Proverb goes, “… tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it today.”

The year 2013 is Kenya’s year of Jubilee.  Kenya will be 50 years old as a nation.  That will be older than many Kenyans are or hope to be.  So, 2013 is a year of great significance.  On Monday, March 4, 2013, Kenya continues with the heady and momentous transition currently on going at all levels.  This General Election will usher in Kenya’s fourth President, 47 Governors, 67 Senators, at least 348 Members of Parliament and up to 2,121 County Assembly Representatives.  This will be in addition to major structural changes in government and governance across the country. 

With this effort, Kenya will be implementing a most ambitious social re-engineering programme.  We, as a people, are on a journey that will either unite or divide us for a long time to come.  We seat on the cusp of change with profound implications for generations born and yet to be born in this country, our region and continent.  It is an ambitious project of rebuilding the Kenyan nation.  The air is pregnant with possibility beyond our wildest imagination.  But it is also fraught with dangers that could render Kenya unviable as we know it.  Every voting Kenyan must ask what future they wish to bestow to their children as they queue, receive and cast their ballots.  It is about our future, our children’s future, our nation Kenya.

As a country we are facing several challenges.  We have a high and rising population growth rate at 2.7 percent per annum, accompanied by an on-going demographic shift: a youthful, relatively skilled and urbanising population that is underemployed and unemployed.  The youth, age 15 – 24, comprise 43% of Kenya’s population, with a 24% open unemployment rate.  The population 34 years and below comprises 78.8% of the total population.  The economy, growing at 4.4% in 2011 and expanding by 4.7% in the third quarter of 2012, is performing below the Kenya Vision 2030 targets of an average of 10% per annum.  According to the Health Sector Working Group, Kenya’s disease burden remains high, with 80% of Kenyans vulnerable to Malaria infections, with an inpatient morbidity rate of 16%.  We remain a water scarce nation, with 647 m³ per person per year compared to the benchmark 1000m³ per person per year.  This has significant implications for the economy, food and nutrition security and general social order. 

Notwithstanding these challenges, there are bright spots that we can and must leverage.  There remains enormous potential in the country if we successfully leverage the demographic dividend about to take place in the country.  The emerging natural resource boom, comprising oil, gold, coal, rare earth metals and iron ore to name a few, well managed, is key to Kenya’s rapid and sustained economic take off.  The peace dividend sweeping the region provides opportunities beyond measure for creation of long term wealth, for the region and for us.  Our place as innovators per excellence has been established by the mobile money phenomenon that is MPESA.  We are the global leaders.  Realisation of the technopolis that is Konza City, the Silicon Savannah, will set us apart and establish us as primus inter pares in the region and continent.  And who knows, globally.

The challenges and opportunities we must deal with are set against a backdrop of global and domestic issues, including the global financial crisis, euro-zone crisis, aftershocks of the post-election violence and the threat of terrorism.  This election represents the second door we must unlock and close, if we are to deal with our challenges and leverage the opportunities for our long term benefit.  The first was promulgation of the Constitution of Kenya 2010.

The hard work necessary for Kenya to progress is premised on pursuing a national development agenda that leverages Kenya’s assets.  Domestically, we will need to focus on growing the economy, climate change adaptation, ensure food and nutrition security, dealing with inequality and poverty, create good jobs, make government work and rebuild trust in public institutions, as well as harness devolution and urbanization. Our infrastructure, though fairly developed, is still a major constraint for Kenya’s growth and the fortunes of its neighbours.  This situation must be addressed by building infrastructure to support cost effective delivery of basic services as well as support meaningful regional integration.

Kenya’s domestic prospects are linked to its ability to work well with and within the region and the continent.  This requires that we pursue effective and meaningful regional integration and strengthen Kenya’s leadership role within the region.  Kenya must effectively engage in regional peace and counter terrorism initiatives, especially considering that the emerging peace dividend in the region is still tenuous.

As globalisation and regionalisation take root, it is necessary for Kenya to strengthen its ability to engage. We must pursue international and regional trade competitiveness and support bilateral and multilateral arrangements and focus on improving Kenya’s image in the world.

The Kenya Scenarios Project identified four futures of development for us, namely El-Nino, Maendeleo, Katiba Road and the Flying Geese.  Under El-Nino we descended into chaos and there was a collapse of social order.  Maendeleo saw us focused on development only and nothing else mattered. On the other hand, the Katiba Road scenario saw political freedoms being exercised in economically strained times.  The Flying Geese scenario combined political reform coupled with economic growth.  These scenarios, which we have fairly ignored, are not about predicting the future but rather they should help us to understand the trending of events that will impact our welfare. Such knowledge is necessary if Kenyans have to progress.

A review of Kenya’s performance, so far, shows elements of the first three scenarios and probably describes our below-expected-performance from independence to date.  Kenya Vision 2030 is the country’s articulation of the Flying Geese Scenario. Implementation of the Constitution of Kenya in 2010 is our initial down payment for realisation of the Kenya Vision 2030.

Therefore, what trends will affect our future and how do we use or deal with them to ensure our overall prosperity?  For Kenya, it is important to understand how, the demographic changes taking place, the diffusion of power brought about by implementation of the Constitution of Kenya 2010, and the growing nexus between energy, water, land and food, will impact the country.  How will they affect the future we want and who should we be partnering with to enable us manage our development?  What should our development policy be?  What should we manage, grow or ignore?  Is our growth path acceptable?  Are our development policies dependent on decisions or actions from sources far beyond our control and ability to influence?  What must we do? Will Kenya be the same 50 years from now?  What kind of Kenya are we looking to see and what must we do to achieve that future?  There should be no doubt that the choices we make now will define the options and possibilities we can leverage tomorrow.

A diagnosis of these issues suggests that there are significant weaknesses in the institutions of managing the nation, a matter that the Constitution of Kenya 2010 sets out to address.  Governance is going to be key to carrying forward a united Kenya.  But this is only part of the story.  The details of the operationalisation, integration and coordination of these institutions will determine whether we will achieve Kenya’s ‘flying geese’ scenario and emerge as a strong, united and leading nation in Africa and the world or we will fail.

Therefore, as Kenyans, on March 4, 2013 work towards the selection of the shepherds who will take them forward, we argue that Kenyans must ask their leaders what they intend to do about these issues.  You must vote based on your answers to these questions.  It is our responsibility to interrogate the solutions they propose and determine who offers the best solution.  As the Chairperson of the Kenya Institute of Planners recently put it, “… the next three years and the choices Kenyans make about the leadership at the national and county government levels will determine the outcome of Kenya’s nationhood going forward.”

Kenyans should listen to the African proverb that says, “when the music changes, so does the dance”.  Whatever our differences, we still will remain as Kenyans.  To do otherwise would be an unforgivable betrayal of those who sacrificed in the past and of the trust of those for whom we strive to build for tomorrow. 

If we believe in a future for Kenya, in the beauty of our dreams for it, we must vote peacefully and wisely.  Because, the future Kenya records, depends on the decision, you and you alone, make at the ballot box.