@Bobby, I am not Catherine (Nyaki) but I do get your drift. That indeed the projections for mobile uptake was completely off-target. And perhaps then so will our Broadband targets. But targets are like that. It depends on what is/are your assumptions. You can base your targets on exceptional disruptive realities (such moblie technology had over the fixed lines) or chose a more cautious approach (while still hoping this would be disrupted by new technologies). I know you run a business and so this could be a question to consider: Would you like your finance manager/director to predict your next years Revenues based on a cautious last years Revenue or would you rather work with a prediction that is based on some one-off "bumber" harvest your experienced a while back? Both predictions are acceptable, depending on the level of risk you want to take. At a national level, one would be more comfy with a cautious prediction - while still being quite happy if proved otherwise with some disruptive technologies of the future. The flipside of this ofcourse would be to plan for ambitious targets that presuppose a disruptive technology in mind - but if it does not occur then you are more miserable than if it did. walu. From: robert yawe <robertyawe@yahoo.co.uk> To: jwalu@yahoo.com Cc: KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions <kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke> Sent: Wednesday, September 25, 2013 3:42 PM Subject: Re: [kictanet] National Broadband Strategy FINAL POSITION @Catherine,Can you please share with us what the prediction/forecast was in 2000 for the penetration of mobile telephony in a 3rd world country and what Kenya actually achieved?Regards Robert YaweKAY System Technologies LtdPhoenix House, 6th FloorP O Box 55806 Nairobi, 00200Kenya Tel: +254722511225, +254202010696 From: Catherine Adeya <elizaslider@yahoo.com> To: robertyawe@yahoo.co.uk Cc: KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions <kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke> Sent: Tuesday, 24 September 2013, 16:01 Subject: Re: [kictanet] National Broadband Strategy FINAL POSITION Let me begin by apologizing for the information that was earlier posted regarding the Broadband target in Kenya, it was an unintended mix up and is highly regretted. Indeed the BB connectivity target as defined in the National Broadband Strategy is 5mbps and 40Mbps for urban areas. While it’s the view of the commentator that the target is too low, the view of the NBS Taskforce is that the issue is not to set as high a target as possible, but to be aware of prevalent conditions. Even with the current BB definition of 256kbps, what percentage of the country is covered with broadband? ( About 10% or so), and this does not mean that all broadband connections are at 256 kbps, many people are already enjoying speeds of several hundred mbps in Kenya today. The 40mbps in urban areas by 2017 is not a limiting factor, but a benchmarking value/ average for the total Kenyan population. A number of subscribers may by then be enjoying speeds much greater than 40 mbps, but for statistical purposes, 40mbps is the targeted connection speed. In addition if reference had been made to developed and developing country broadband targets, probably this question should not have arisen. It could have been realised that peak connection speeds in these countries is already beyond what is stated in their targets. In section 6.1 for the NBS for example, USA: 100mbps to 100 Million homes by 2020 Canada: 5mbps to all by 2016 Austria : Basic broadband (512kbps-4mbps) to all by 2016 Brazil: 1 mbps to all by 2014 Malaysia: 50% households at 2mbps by 2020 South Africa: 100% universal access (to at least 256mbps) by 2019 Egypt : 90% of households access to 25mbps by 2021 So, while 1Gps shall be achieved in Chattanooga, Tennessee, the general target for the United states of America is 100mbps to 100 Million homes by 2020. In conclusion, the target figures of 5mbps for rural areas, and 40mbps for urban areas by 2017 is realistic. In fact we may be over-ambitious, if figures from developed countries is anything to go by. It is also important to bear in mind that BB services defined at national levels should resonate with affordability by the population. Best Regards, Nyaki From: Catherine Adeya <elizaslider@yahoo.com> To: Nyaki C. Adeya <elizaslider@yahoo.com> Cc: KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions <kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke> Sent: Saturday, September 21, 2013 8:37 PM Subject: Re: [kictanet] National Broadband Strategy CORRECTION TO EARLIER POST Apologies as it seems the confusion maybe genuine. I understand that the final Report has been uploaded on CCK website and it may be the best one to read. It seems the confusion may be due to a mix up between kilobytes and megabits. It maybe correct that our target in megabits is quite ambitious for a developing country but we must believe. Muriuki, where are you? From: Catherine Adeya <elizaslider@yahoo.com>; To: <elizaslider@yahoo.com>; Cc: kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke <kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke>; Subject: Re: [kictanet] National Broadband Strategy Sent: Fri, Sep 20, 2013 4:41:36 PM Walu,Instead of a cheque why don't you just accept to "pay it forward". On a more serious note, I gather that the version of the Report that Robert may have downloaded is a little dated. I have not read the thread in this debate in detail but suffice it to say note that the target in Urban areas is very ambitious but with FTTx it is possible. Nothing ever hurt having ambition and we must think big...Vision 2030 here we come!!!A little bird also told me that they should be loading the corrected final version of the NBS Strategy on the CCK website. That is the version that was launched. Do have a great weekend,Nyaki From: Walubengo J <jwalu@yahoo.com> To: elizaslider@yahoo.com Cc: "kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke" <kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke> Sent: Friday, September 20, 2013 5:43 PM Subject: Re: [kictanet] National Broadband Strategy @Bobby,True if content was local, we would avoid "expensive" international links. Unfortunately, this was only true during the days of Satellite communications. Today you can get 1MBs international bandwidth at 200USD - compared to 5000USD we used to pay over satellite international links. Clearly, the this confirms that the bigger costs for internet are no longer the "international" link but "domestic" links. It does costs more to move 1MB of data from Mombasa to Nairobi than it does to move it from USA to Mombasa. So yes, abundant local content may help, but not quite sure by how much. My guesstimate is that our internet cost structure is split 20/80 with 20% being what we spend on international links and 80% on domestic/local links.The National Broadband Strategy aims to reduce cost on domestic links through:1. Shared resources:-no need for each Operator to bury their own fiber; eventually it is you and I who will pay for something which could be shared through ONE duct provided by the local counties.2. Better Spectrum Managment:-need to free up some spectrum to the operators and look into the punitive licensing regime for spectrum3. Supportive Infrastructure:- Did you know 100% of the Operators Base Stations must be supported by disel generators because Kenya Power is not in the rural areas and where it is in the urban areas, it often asleep3-5 times a day..4. etc, etc.I think I have done enough marketing for the National Broadband Strategy. I hope CS Matiangi and DG Wangusi can prepare some cheque for me.walu.nb: yes, I conceed the Strategy was prepared in exclusive resort, but what I meant is that the PROCESS was NOT EXCLUSIVE. Indeed the draft was online and open for comment for almost 3mnths. From: robert yawe <robertyawe@yahoo.co.uk> To: Walubengo J <jwalu@yahoo.com> Cc: "kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke" <kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke> Sent: Friday, September 20, 2013 1:11 PM Subject: Re: [kictanet] National Broadband Strategy @Walu,Here is a fact that not even you can dispute, the reason Internet bandwidth is cheaper in America is because for all intents and purposes the Internet is physically located in the US of A, for you and I Internet is an imported resource.So, what we need is local content generation and hosting not what we have with companies like the Nation Media Group who host there servers in the USA yet 60% of the traffic originates in Kenya.On the University issue when will KENET start offering local content for access by the universities and other tertiary institutions instead of spending millions importing content. In addition when will the Multimedia University of Kenya start generating and sharing content which is right up whose alley?We can achieve 10 Mbps connectivity to all homes for local traffic and 256 for imported traffic, why is it assumed that to be on the Internet I must be accessing a server hosted in the USA.The answers and right here with is but unfortunately we let politicians, bureaucrats and academics to decide direction and policy.RegardsPS. and I can assure you it was done in some isolated nut exclusive dark room :-) Robert YaweKAY System Technologies LtdPhoenix House, 6th FloorP O Box 55806 Nairobi, 00200Kenya Tel: +254722511225, +254202010696 From: Walubengo J <jwalu@yahoo.com> To: robertyawe@yahoo.co.uk Cc: kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke Sent: Friday, 20 September 2013, 8:38 Subject: Re: [kictanet] National Broadband Strategy Bobby, Eng. Kariuki,I happen to know the team of bright chaps who facilitated the production of the Natinal Broadband Strategy - and I can assure it was not done in some isolated nad exclusive dark room :-)They tell me that in setting targets, on must be appreciate where we are today in order to project where you expect to b in nxt 5yrs. 5MB per USER by 2017 may look poor compared to the US but did you know that some of our newer Universities can only afford 10MB for their 3000+ students?You must also differentiate between capacity (of technology/bandwidth) vis a viz actual bandwidth projected to be USED. Right now in Kenya, our Operators have the technologies and capacities to deliver even 10MB per USER for each of the 16m Internet users in Kenya. But do they? The answer is big NO. The average Kenyan uses cannot afford a fiber or wireless link of 10MB per month. In the broadband strategy we need to work on the dynamics that would make this average Kenyan afford and USE at least 5MBs per month.Now u might be begin to see that even that 5MB per user per month by 2017 is not an easy target.walu.------------------------------On Thu, Sep 19, 2013 8:03 PM AST (Arabian) John Kariuki wrote:>Robert, Listers>>I would agree with Robert that 40 mbps in 5 years is a rather low target for urban areas and we should achieve higher speeds in the next 2 to 3 years. 5 years in ICT is a very very long time!>>>John Kariuki.>>>________________________________> From: robert yawe <robertyawe@yahoo.co.uk>>To: ngethe.kariuki2007@yahoo.co.uk >Cc: KICTAnet ICT Policy Discussions <kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke> >Sent: Thursday, 19 September 2013, 15:12>Subject: [kictanet] National Broadband Strategy> >>>Hi,>>I recently went through the National Broad Band Strategy documents where it was indicated that we intend to achieve a connectivity speed of 40 mbps in urban areas in the next 5 years.>>This might seem like quite an achievement but starting today some of the Internet users inChattanooga, Tennessee in the USA will be experiencing 1 Gbps speeds to their homes, it seems either we are aiming very low or the strategy is a cut and paste from an era long gone which is a clear indication of what happens when you sit in a dark room and write a strategy but with no organised group to turn to for assistance what was the other choice?>>http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2013/09/17/how-chattanooga-beat-google-fiber-by-half-a-decade/#!>>>Regards>>About Chattanooga: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chattanooga,_Tennessee>> >Robert Yawe>KAY System Technologies Ltd>Phoenix House, 6th Floor>P O Box 55806 Nairobi, 00200>Kenya>>>Tel: +254722511225, +254202010696>_______________________________________________>kictanet mailing list>kictanet@lists.kictanet.or.ke>https://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/listinfo/kictanet>>Unsubscribe or change your options at https://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/options/kictanet/ngethe.kariuki2007%40yahoo.co.uk>>The Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder platform for people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and development.>>KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors online that you follow in real life: respect people's times and bandwidth, share knowledge, don't flame or abuse or personalize, respect privacy, do not spam, do not market your wares or qualifications._______________________________________________kictanet mailing listkictanet@lists.kictanet.or.kehttps://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/listinfo/kictanetUnsubscribe or change your options at https://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/options/kictanet/robertyawe%40yahoo.co.... Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder platform for people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and development.KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors online that you follow in real life: respect people's times and bandwidth, share knowledge, don't flame or abuse or personalize, respect privacy, do not spam, do not market your wares or qualifications._______________________________________________kictanet mailing listkictanet@lists.kictanet.or.kehttps://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/listinfo/kictanetUnsubscribe or change your options at https://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/options/kictanet/elizaslider%40yahoo.co... Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder platform for people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and development.KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors online that you follow in real life: respect people's times and bandwidth, share knowledge, don't flame or abuse or personalize, respect privacy, do not spam, do not market your wares or qualifications. _______________________________________________kictanet mailing listkictanet@lists.kictanet.or.kehttps://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/listinfo/kictanetUnsubscribe or change your options at https://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/options/kictanet/robertyawe%40yahoo.co.... Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder platform for people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and development.KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors online that you follow in real life: respect people's times and bandwidth, share knowledge, don't flame or abuse or personalize, respect privacy, do not spam, do not market your wares or qualifications._______________________________________________kictanet mailing listkictanet@lists.kictanet.or.kehttps://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/listinfo/kictanetUnsubscribe or change your options at https://lists.kictanet.or.ke/mailman/options/kictanet/jwalu%40yahoo.comThe Kenya ICT Action Network (KICTANet) is a multi-stakeholder platform for people and institutions interested and involved in ICT policy and regulation. The network aims to act as a catalyst for reform in the ICT sector in support of the national aim of ICT enabled growth and development.KICTANetiquette : Adhere to the same standards of acceptable behaviors online that you follow in real life: respect people's times and bandwidth, share knowledge, don't flame or abuse or personalize, respect privacy, do not spam, do not market your wares or qualifications.