I think there are lots of different dimensions to this (and what follows is not ICT specific). I have to update country reports every once in a while and usually have to have some sort of general outlook for investment, too. Also, I get commissioned by potential investors to look at specific opportunities and the risks associated with them. Based on that, here a a couple of thoughts: - It all depends: On what sector you're looking at, what your risk tolerance is, how sensitive you are about your reputational risk, what your experience in this or similar markets is. - There's been a rising interest in investing and/or doing business in Africa over the past years. Kenya benefits from this, too. - In this context, Kenya is, despite its drawbacks, still interesting for the following reason: most advanced financial sector, large domestic market, relatively well educated work force etc. Rwanda, for example, might be safer and easier to navigate (although not necessarily easy - it has its own and very different set of challenges), but it has a tiny domestic market and its landlocked location means that transport costs to get anything to and from global markets are still prohibitive. - If you're interested in the entire EAC market, Kenya is still a useful base to operate from for the above reasons, because it is a regional transport and finance hub, because most people who matter in the rest of the EAC will eventually rock up in a Nairobi city hotel. - Don't underestimate Kenyan investment in the EAC scenario - this is not just about international FDI: Kenya may attract less FDI than the other countries (and Uganda's and Tanzania's figures were certainly beefed up by the fact that oil and gold prices remained strong, and their extractive industries attracted a lot of money). But KQ, Serena, Fina, KCB, Equity, Bidco etc are regional firms. Kenyan firms contribute to Rwanda's, Uganda's, Burundi's and Tanzania's FDI. - I think we'll certainly see a slowdown before the next elections: There is uncertainty over whether they will be peaceful or not, and in the run up to the elections, it is likely that corruption will increase as all sorts of officials, MPs etc look for cash for their campaigns. Also, that renders investors more vulnerable if they are in politically sensitive areas: If you look back at the port privatisation discussion, it has been argued that this is unlikely to make much progress before the elections as it would be too easy for MPs to exploit the current resentment against likely job losses. This is a sensitive subject at the best of times, but not something you'd want to get into a year before the elections when every MPs is desperate for PR opportunities. Also, finally, I think it might be worth bearing in mind the difference between the status quo and people coming here despite a host of factors - and what Kenya could be if it sorted out those factors. Sometimes it's a bit limiting if you benchmark yourself against the weaker cases. Just a quick list - this is by no means exhaustive nor very systematic. Adnrea On 27 June 2011 12:26, Suhayl Esmailjee <[email protected]> wrote:
This seems to suggest otherwise for Kenya ....
Regards
SE
On Mon, Jun 27, 2011 at 8:07 AM, Dorcas Muthoni <[email protected]>wrote:
Very interesting... East Africa is looking good. All but Burundi are included in the top ten. We should get Southern Sudan into EA who are likely to draw quite a number of investors.
On Fri, Jun 24, 2011 at 9:19 PM, Harry Hare < [email protected]> wrote:
Friday, 24 June 2011 11:33 Linda Larbie
International investors choose *South Africa*, *Nigeria* and *Kenya* as the best African countries on the continent for investment in 2011. A survey conducted by *Africa Business Panel<http://www.africabusinesspanel.com/> * among 800 business professionals involved with Africa shows that these 3 countries were earmarked as the continent’s favourites when it comes to international investment. *Ghana, Angola, Tanzania, Rwanda, Botswana, Uganda* and *Mozambique* are the runners up and complete the top ten countries for investment out of 53 economies on the African continent.
http://www.africabusinesscommunities.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=948&catid=1
====
Just a few years ago investor were running away from Kenya, now we are up there again…that is why I love this country.
Have a feel good weekend.
Harry
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