http://www.nation.co.ke/Features/DN2/Smart-idea-but-how-many-will-buy-it/-/9... Yet another article that's not exactly pro-Konza. My views [1] The notion of BHAG's always being good is flawed e.g. Brasilia, India has *several* failed SEZ's, SA has failed SEZ's. Because it's audacious and worth striving towards, it does not mean that it will succeed. [2] We have a feedback fallacy going on about Konza, that negative feedback is criticism and positive feedback is "feedback". The truth of the matter is that we cannot be sure that Konza will succeed. Feedback (both negative and positive) needs to be countered. [3] Goodhart's Law - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law - "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure." [4] The Net Present Value - You cannot calculate NPV on a future figure - we can, however, rely on the fact that we probably won't experience deflation in our economy, what's more likely is inflation - so the figure might actually be larger, which actually supports Kwame's views… On Wednesday, January 30, 2013 at 1:57 PM, Ali Hussein wrote:
To add on to what you have said Kivuva this is what (to paraphrase Management Guru, Jim Collins) a Big Hairy Audacious Goal looks like and the old economic models or thought processing are obsolete. We must strive to beat the rules of Gravity - only then can we achieve greatness. This is not a white elephant in the fashion of Turkwell Gorge..
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On Jan 30, 2013, at 10:49 AM, Kivuva <[email protected] (mailto:[email protected])> wrote:
Kwame Owino is not presenting the facts accurately. Actually, he's not thinking critically.
Of the ~$8.5billion that will be spent on the next 20years, GoK will spend a very tiny fraction of that amount since the bulk of that capital will be sourced and utilized by firms that will setup at Konza. You cannot start calculating Net Present Value now of capital that will be employed over two decades, by hundreds of different entities, that would never have converged if Konza was not a reality. Without Konza, that capital would have gone somewhere else, say South Africa, or Rwanda.
The net result of the project is positive for Kenya since "what do we stand to loose?"
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